Market Trends with Tracy

Stubborn Steaks

Saval Foodservice

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BEEF We are in a post-Labor Day declining market. The exception is no one seems to have told strip loins and ribeyes. Pretty much everything in the beef complex is moving lower for next week, except ribeyes and strip loins. Demand is holding both items from moving lower. Even tenderloins are moving down for next week.  Grinds down, rounds down, chucks down. I think this should continue to the end of the month, but better values are here. Production dropped last week to 526K head, down from 542K the prior week. This week being a holiday short week will most likely finish below 500K. Even with declining prices, inventories continue to be very tight. I’d stay ahead my needs, but better prices will continue to move this market a bit lower. 

POULTRY Chicken production was actually below last year for this past week. I’ve not seen that in a long while. Overall, we are still about 2% ahead of last year but expect that to shrink heading into fall. For next week, wings are getting some push from strong demand, still a good value, but they are moving higher. Boneless skinless randoms and tenderloins steady for another week. On the avian flu front, 4 new cases affecting 72K birds. As the weather begins to cool, we will most likely see these cases increase. 

GRAINS Grains are holding onto all their gains from the last couple weeks. Corn continues strong; today’s close $5.36/bushel. The 2026 corn harvest has begun, only 5% complete so far, quality rating is at a crop low 56%, rated good to excellent. Still, plenty of corn to sell. Soy is holding steady with last week; the pricing is volatile based on tensions in the Middle Est and oil pricing. Wheat continues to be affected by Black Sea hostilities as Ukraine and Russia are both attacking shipping infrastructure, making shipments hazardous. Don’t expect much relief on grains right now. 

PORK Bellies bounced around this week before declining again, down $1 from last week. Today’s close was $121. This is about where I expect we will be for the next few weeks. Butts are tight but pricing is steady, ribs are actually down a few pennies, and pork loins continue to be a great protein value. 

DAIRY Another rather quiet week in dairy markets, still with a tilt downward. As of Thursday’s CME close, barrel is down 3, block down 1, and butter down another 4.  I don’t see anything coming to push this market higher. 

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